Recap Of 5/8/2019 28 Board IMP Individual

Wow – today we had 8 double digit swings.  Not one of them was the standard 10 IMPs which usually come from a non-vulnerable game that was bid/made at one table, down one at the other or else a vulnerable game bid/made at one table, while not bid at the other.  Today, bidding judgment played a big role over and over: bid too much, bid too little, slams, as well as leads, defense, revokes – it was all there.

 

 

You can see the difference in bidding judgment on this hand.  Yes, I took a conservative view that worked.  Was that right, in principle?  Hxx and Hxxx ‘points’ are substantially overvalued.  Honors are worth more when they are paired.  I had no points in the suit that partner opened, so at least one of my honors had a potential of not being worth very much.  At least that was my thinking when I did not advance past 2♠.  At the other table, the bidding allowed the South player with my hand to know their partner held 4 trump and an opening hand.  For them, that was enough to bounce to game.  I could have certainly tried a natural 2NT, or possibly a spiral bid (asking about the length of partner’s trumps and the size of their hand), but I wanted to protect the plus score.

As a passed hand, it seems like West could double 1♠ as was done at the other table.  When West heard my pass of 2♠, they had the perfect shape for a balancing reopening double and reason to believe they could compete for the part score.  That left East with a problem – they can’t really pass 2♠X and they have nowhere to play that appeals.  With double dummy play/defense, 2NT, 3♦ and 3♥ all are down 1 (and 3♣ is down 2).  East’s bidding plan was to bid 2NT, and when that got doubled, redouble to say ‘partner, you choose’ but that plan was foiled by partner, who made their own redouble!  So, East had to start bidding 3-card suits up the line.  When 3♣ was doubled, they redoubled and when partner ran to diamonds (the suit that my partner opened!), they decided to quit trying to find a suit and just play 3♦X.

In the play of diamonds, the defense is entitled to 5 tricks on any lead (except the ♦6, which would actually allow the contract to make!).  The defense started with 2 rounds of spades, ruffed by declarer.  Declarer led a diamond to the ♦Q and ♦A and then successfully finessed in hearts and cashed 3 rounds of hearts.  That brings their total to 5 tricks with a certain trump trick yet to come as well as the ♣A.  Declarer led the 13th heart and can score 2 trump tricks and achieve down 1 if they ruff their heart winner, but they discarded a club instead of ruffing up with the ♦10 (which is sure to win, since North had opened diamonds and split their honors when diamonds were led).  So I ruffed the heart and…erred by allowing declarer another spade ruff with a small trump while they still remained with the ♦J and the ♦10x in dummy for another trick.  So, declarer got back to down 1.  But, if I had led a club, declarer has no answer.  Looking at the ♣J7 in dummy, I hated to lead from my ♣Q, but I needed to.  If declarer ducks my club, partner can draw trump.  If declarer wins my club, nothing they lead after that can get more than 1 more trump trick – we have all black winners.  So, the +500 that became available went back to only collecting +200.  Was that dangerous to double a vulnerable part score at IMPs, possibly giving them a game (when they were only down 1)?  I think it was dangerous not to double, but that is just my view.

Meanwhile, the South player with my hand at the other table had trouble finding 10 tricks in spades.  When both red aces lay over our red kings, there really are only 8 tricks possible in spades – a trick in each minor and 6 trump tricks.  I suspect declarer drew 1 too many rounds of trump and, in the end, only found 7 tricks for down 3, so our teammates were +300 to go with our +200 to win 11 IMPs.

 

 

This hand was interesting for bidding judgment, play and defense.  Starting with North, as dealer, do they have a suitable opening 2♦ bid, vulnerable against not, with a shoddy suit and a side 4 card major?  The North player at my table decided they did, so they opened 2♦.  I considered 2NT, but was definitely too strong, so I started with a double.  South raised to 3♦ and my partner bid 4♦ asking me to choose a major.  I certainly have (much) more than a minimum takeout double of 2♦ and undoubtedly should have found some bid other than naming my major with a simple 4♠ (perhaps bid 5♠ or even 6♠?).  My partner passed 4♠, but as he put dummy down, he indicated that he too had extra values that he hadn’t shown, so we were both fearful that a slam had been missed.

Meanwhile, at the other table, North did not open the bidding, so East got to open.  Playing 20-21 point 2NT opening bids, does the East hand warrant an upgrade?  K&R Hand Evaluator comes up with 19.55 (round up?) – http://www.jeff-goldsmith.org/cgi-bin/knr.cgi?hand=k754+a5+aj8+ak54

Anyway, East did open 2NT, and the auction proceeded rapidly to slam.  Now to find 12 tricks.  There was no bidding at the other table to warn the declarer about potential foul splits.  This is an excellent slam if trump are 3-2 with 12 easy tricks (5+1+1+5) – no finesses, no problem.  When trump were 4-1, there was a problem.  I think the actual play to score 12 tricks is quite double dummy (if you start by drawing trumps) and not that likely to be found unless declarer has a long time to analyze information as it becomes available and takes considerable time and effort to play the hand.  To score 12 tricks on the actual heart lead, declarer must play only 2 rounds of trump (winning the ♠AQ in dummy) and then score 2 diamond ruffs in dummy by crossing to hand in clubs (but at least 1 round of ‘crossing to hand’ involves leading a high club from dummy and overtaking in order to unblock clubs (assuming they break 2-2) so that the ♣3 can later be led to the ♣4 to draw trump!).  After the last diamond ruff, the small club from dummy leaves North with no answer.  If they ruff, declarer can win any return, draw trump and claim (winning the ♦A and good clubs).  If they don’t ruff, declarer wins the club lead and plays both trumps, eliminating the threat of a club ruff (of course this only works if the ♥K was a singleton, placing north with 4=1=6=2).  With only diamonds left, North must lead to East’s ♦A and their remaining club allows an entry to the established clubs in dummy so that they can pitch their heart loser on the 13th club at the 13th trick.  But, that is not how the play went at either table.

Bruce pointed out an easier plan to make 12 tricks (after reading my first draft).  The plan above assumes that, after winning the heart lead, you play trumps at trick 2 (learning about the 4-1 split).  But, there is zero risk to ruff a diamond at trick 2 and then play ♠AQ.  If trump are 3-2, you can draw trump and claim.  If trump prove to be 4-1, cross to hand in clubs to ruff your last losing diamond.  Cross to hand again in clubs: if North ruffs, hope that North is 4=1=7=1.  If they follow suit, win the club and play 2 more rounds of trump.  They must win and lead diamonds (assuming North started with a singleton heart).  With both losing diamonds ruffed in dummy and the heart discarded on the 13th club, you have 12 tricks.  This line of play (ruff a diamond at trick 2), eliminates the non-obvious requirement to lead a high club as you cross to hand, unblocking clubs so that the ♣3 can lead to the ♣4.

At my table, due to the 2♦ opening bid, South found the ♦Q opening lead (although it made no difference which diamond they chose).  I ruffed and played the ♠AQ.  Since I retained both red aces, I was in great position to get the ‘5+1+1+5 tricks’ mentioned at the start, although not as initially expected (that is, initially I thought 3 top trumps and 1 ruff in each hand, the classic ‘extra trick’ to get 5 tricks out of a 4-4 trump holding).  Instead, I can get 2 diamond ruffs in dummy to go with my 3 top trumps.  So, I crossed to my hand in clubs, ruffed my ♦J, and then crossed again in clubs (if they ruff, my club trick count goes down by 1, but my trump trick count goes up by 1).  Now I should play 2 rounds of trump (giving North their natural trick) and claim.  Only I didn’t – big blind spot (my ‘blind spot’ was based on the usual technique of ‘leave the high trump outstanding so that you still have a trump after they ruff’ – but it doesn’t apply when you have all suits controlled, a suit to run and cannot afford an untimely ruff).  Anyway, I just kept playing clubs.  Now, if North simply ruffs the 4th round of clubs, my 13th club is inaccessible and I only have 11 tricks.  But, North ruffed the 3rd round of clubs and I was back to 12 tricks.  But I wasn’t in slam, so the tricks made no difference.

Let’s move over to the play in the slam.  With no diamond bid from partner, South found the normal lead of the ♥Q which went to the ♥K and ♥A.  As mentioned previously, 12 tricks are available on any lead, but not easily.  Declarer erred by drawing 3 rounds of trump, leaving the high trump outstanding.  They then started playing clubs.  North was down to their high trump and all diamonds.  Since they were counting points (declarer had shown 20-21), they ‘knew’ that, in order to reach 20 HCP declarer had to hold the ♦AQ, so a simple finesse would allow declarer to win 2 diamonds when North is forced to lead a diamond after ruffing a club.  The way to avoid that finesse is to never ruff!  So, they didn’t ruff the 3rd round, 4th round or 5th round of clubs.  They let declarer cash all of their clubs and pitch the heart loser.  If North ruffs any club, both of declarer’s trumps will become tricks, so the defense will only score the high trump and a diamond at the end, down 1.  If declarer did have the ♦Q, there is nothing the defense can do.  Declarer will make 12 tricks when they finesse the diamond after North leads one.  Discarding on all of the clubs allowed declarer to score both of their trumps separately, and the diamond loser that they actually held was doubly lost as it was covered by South’s  ♦Q and ruffed by North’s high trump at trick 13.

So, not the best offense, defense or bidding on this hand.  We were +480 and our teammates were -980, lose 11 IMPs.  6♠ is an excellent slam and we should have gotten there even after the opening weak 2♦.  Making 6♠ is certainly easy after the diamond lead that I got – take 2 diamond ruffs as you draw 2 rounds of trump and then re-enter hand to play 2 more rounds of trump.  With all suits controlled, 12 tricks (5+1+1+5).

 

 

The bidding was nearly identical until it came time to call the East hand ‘minimum’ or ‘maximum’.  I judged it ‘maximum’ and my partner quickly ended the bidding with slam.  My counterpart holding my hand at the other table judged ‘minimum’ and his partner reasonably signed off in game.  Which is it?  Min or Max?  Relying on K&R Hand Evaluator, not available at the table, I learn that this hand comes out at 11.85!  While I’m shocked (I thought that with the ♦K supported by the ♦A and with both queens supported by jacks), that the honor combination moved the evaluation closer to 14 than 12.  I have know ‘forever’ that queens are overvalued, and the proper evaluation of this hand will help me evaluate better next time.

Still, we did reach a reasonable slam.  As long as trump aren’t 4-0, there are 12 easy tricks if the heart finesse wins.  If the heart finesse loses there is a chance in clubs (to dispose of your diamond loser).  First the club finesse must win, but also the ♣10 must be doubleton or tripleton so that the ♣9 is established for your diamond discard.  So, the slam is a little better than 50%, which is certainly enough to bid a slam, but with both finesses losing, there was nothing to the play.  Both tables scored 11 tricks, so we were -100, our teammates were -650, lose 13 IMPs.

Epilog – there are lots of flavors of ‘spiral asking bids’.  Some always start with 2NT as the asking bid whether trump is hearts or spades.  There is a ‘Dutch Spiral’ that has gotten a lot of press on Bridgewinners.  With most of my current partners, we are using 2NT as natural (always) and the next higher suit (2♠ over 2♥; 3♣ over 2♠) is the asking bid.  But, in addition to agreeing what the asking bid is, there are a variety of responses out there, so if you decide to play ‘spiral’ it is best to confirm with partner what all of the bids are.  Spiral also works best if you know how to evaluate a hand as min or max which I failed on this occasion!

 

Identical bidding at both tables to get this auction started.  I don’t like either auction, since, if diamonds are trump, 12 tricks are there on any lead with the club finesse available for all 13 tricks.  The preempt gummed up the works, which preempts are intended to do.  There simply isn’t room for opener to describe a real diamond suit.  At my table, when partner answered key cards to my intended natural/invitational 4NT, I still didn’t know what to do.  They could have been 4=4=3=2 and produced the same auction.  Even though I have a nice hand, my 3♠ bid aleady showed a decent hand and slam will take a perfect fit or extra values that partner could not conveniently show.  Bottom line, we wandered into 6NT and thanks to the power of the ♠10 and ♠9 (and the club finesse), 12 tricks were easily there (3+2+5+2).  The same 12 tricks were there in the 4NT contract, so we were +990 vs. our teammates -490, to win a lucky 11 IMPs.

The hand belongs in a diamond slam.  But I haven’t figured the auction that sensibly gets there, perhaps some readers can help?  Obviously you can just sit there and bid 6♦ like I bid 6NT, but I’m looking for an auction that can knowingly bid 6♦.

 

When I was 2nd seat, Vulnerable vs. not, I actually considered a 2NT opening (18 HCP plus a point for the 5th and 6th diamond = 20 – perfect!).  Only possessing nothing to stop 9-10 black suit winners convinced me to start with 1♦.  At the other table, North did start (and end) the auction with 2NT.  Who/how does E-W enter the auction after that start???  Now it came down to the lead.  David Bird instructs passive leads into a powerful 2NT opening hand.  Lead Captain didn’t have a lot of differentiation between the different choices – clearly the best lead will depend upon what partner and declarer hold in the various suits and you have no way of knowing.  Lead Captain has 2 ways of expressing the value of a lead: % set (how often the contract goes down with that lead) and # tricks (the average number of tricks that lead will produce for the defense over 5000-10,000 deals).  For IMPs, %set is all that matters (you don’t care how much they go down – well OK, you do a little), but you want to beat the hand.  By the definitions that I inserted into the hands, Lead Captain chose a ♠A (60.3%) as its first choice (allowing a 4 trick set), a small heart (59.6%) as their second choice (giving declarer their 8th trick), and a passive diamond (55.8%) as the third choice (the actual choice that East made at the table).  Declarer won the diamond lead and played another diamond at trick 2.  East, who was thinking about something else, played the ♥2, showing the ♥K.  They then noticed that they still held a diamond to follow suit, so they corrected the revoke, but the ♥2 was on the table.  So, at trick 3, declarer led a heart, East played their ♥2, and declarer had found their 8th trick!  Without the revoke, no line of play can get more than 7 tricks.

Back to the auction at our table.  East had a routine takeout double of my 1♦ opening bid.  Partner made a gentle raise to 2♦ (I doubt that a preemptive raise would have helped keep the opponents out of game – perhaps pass would help?) and West bid 2♠.  With no spade stopper, NT did not appeal for my second bid.  But, it appears we likely have the majority of the HCP (we did), so it felt like I should compete somewhere.  Had I chosen 3♦ we might have been able to defend 3♠.  Instead, I bid 4♦ and West reopened with 4♥ which East corrected to 4♠.  There is no lead or defense that can beat 4♠ and, in fact, amazingly, there is no lead or defense to defeat 5♥ in spite of the defense holding the ♥AQJ10x!  Against 4♠ declarer ruffed the opening diamond lead, drew 3 rounds of trump, crossed to the ♣K and drew the last trump and then ran clubs for their 10 tricks.  That left us -420 while our teammates were -120 to lose 11 IMPs.  We are still losing 8 IMPs even if they beat 2NT a trick (and losing 1 IMP even if the beat 2NT 4 tricks!), but, with 2NT down 1, at least this hand would not have made an appearance in the blog!  Against 2NT, the ♠A is an incredibly effective lead on this deal, but it can sure quickly give declarer a trick and a tempo on many other hands.  What a hand.

 

Another wild hand.  As dealer what should East open, nobody vulnerable?  One table decided to start the auction at 4♥ and it ended there.  At my table, partner started low.  As you can see, partner hoped that his best chance for a plus was using his clubs and hearts and my spades to prevent 9 tricks in NT, so when the opponents reached 3NT, he passed.  It turns out competing further to 4♥ would have worked better, since there are always 9 tricks in NT for N-S and always 10 tricks in hearts E-W (since clubs split 3-3).  Nothing to the leads, play or defense here at either table, it was all in the bidding judgment.  We were -400 and our teammates were -420, lose 13 IMPs.

But, going slowly might have worked – if East bids 4♥ over 3NT and can buy it for 4♥ (and not have the opponents compete to 5♦).  The opponents might think that, having contracted for 9 tricks in NT that it is more likely to score 4 tricks against the 4♥ contract than 11 tricks in diamonds.  At the other table, going fast might have failed.  North, who appeared to have substantial defense against 4♥, did not feel like contracting for 11 tricks in 5♦ (turn a probably plus into a probably minus).  Had North balanced with 5♦, East has to find the improbable lead of three rounds of their ♣KQxx suit instead of starting with their ♥KQJxxxx suit, or else the diamond game will come home.  I don’t know about you, but I don’t think I would find a club lead if I were East defending against 5♦.  But, I must say it is hard to get to 5♦, either the slow way (after first trying for the 9 trick NT contract and then bidding 5♦ over the opponents 4♥) or the fast way (balancing over the 4♥ opening bid).

Should North balance over 4♥?  Should East open 4♥?  Bob Richardson, author of Lead Captain, is working on a program called ‘Bid Captain’ – so here is a data point to add to the program.  Would Bid Captain balance with 5♦ after the 4♥ opening bid, or pass and go for a defeat of 4♥?

 

Another slam decision.  The auction started normally enough at both tables and West had to find a bid over the 2♥ reverse.  Often I will show my 5th card in my major, but that is not played as game forcing, so I chose to bid 3♣ which is game forcing and let’s partner know about the fit (do you and partner have an agreement about what forces to game after a reverse?  you should).  If partner has 3 spades to go with his 4 hearts and 5 or more clubs, I will hear about it next round.  When partner next bid 3NT, it virtually guaranteed that he was 1=4=3=5 with the ♦K.  So, playing in clubs, we have no heart losers, no diamond losers, but very likely a spade loser and the issue is how many of partner’s points are concentrated in clubs (to ensure no club loser) and how many points are wasted/useless in hearts.  Perhaps I should pull 3NT to 4♣ which should be key card for clubs.  But, I still won’t really know if one key card being shown by partner is the ♥A or the ♣K!?!  With the ♣AKQ, the club slam could be cold, or at least playable.  Missing any one of those (assuming a spade loser) and the slam will be dicey or hopeless.  On top of that, the ♣10 could be a critical card.  So, I decided to go quietly.  After the ♠Q lead, 11 tricks were straightforward in our 3NT contract.

At the other table, the player holding my hand had an answer for responding to the reverse – bid 6♣!  It could have worked if partner had the right cards.  He didn’t have the right cards.  In fact, if the defenders clubs were switched, there would have been 2 club losers to go with the spade loser and you can’t even make 5♣.  Slams pay well when they come home, but we were +660 while our teammates were +100 to win 13 IMPs.

 

 

Without the 2nd seat preempt, the auction at the other table was quite straightforward (as you can see from the auction listed second).  With both vulnerable, I was in second seat after South opened 1♦.  I certainly didn’t like the broken heart suit, and it was possible I would go for a large number, but bridge is a bidder’s game, so I entered the auction with 2♥.  North has an easy 1♠ response if West passes or bids 1♥, but 2♠ over 2♥ shows more values than this, and perhaps he will get another chance to bid, so North was forced to pass at their first turn.  When 3♥ came around to North, they balanced with 3♠.  South, who had had a 2NT rebid that they never got to show, decided that their spade fillers (and the potential for 3 heart stoppers) would allow NT to play better than spades, so they bid 3NT.  Playing NT, there won’t be a heart lead through their tenace, but in 4♠ the heart lead is coming right through the ♥AQ10.  My partner, perhaps expecting more for my vulnerable 2♥ call, elected to double 3NT!?!?  Wow.  We are in trouble.  If the opponents now run to 4♠ we have no defense and we are going -790.  But both North and South decided to sit for 3NTX.  As long as I don’t lead a heart against 3NT, declarer will be held to 7 tricks.  My actual spade lead was won with the ♠K and I won the heart shift with the ♥J.  At this point I can surrender club tricks or diamond tricks, but as long as I don’t lead hearts, declarer will only have 7 tricks.  I chose clubs (declarer did bid diamonds and I have help in clubs if partner has any values there).  That gave declarer the whole club suit for 4 tricks, but he can only manage 1 in each of the other three suits, so only 7 tricks for declarer.  We were +500 while our teammates were +620 in their unbeatable 4♠ contract to win 15 IMPs. 

Had partner not doubled, we would ‘only’ win 13 IMPs.  But, the double had the chance to lose 5 IMPs (net loss of 18-20 IMPs) if the opponents ran to 4♠ and we doubled that.  Although doubles can pay handsomely… warning: do not double if the opponents can run to a making contract – just sit and take your known sure plus.