Recap Of 2/13/2019 28 Board IMP Individual

Five hands today with double digit swings.  The first two involved slam decisions, the next was defense/declarer play, and the last two were game/part score decisions.

 

 

First hand of the day.  The first 4 bids at both tables seemed pretty automatic and were identical.  But, the variation occurred on the fifth bid where my partner (Cris) made the invitational jump to 4NT which I accepted, while our opponent at the other table simply raised to 3NT and ended the auction.

Looking at only the North-South hands, this is not a slam you want to be in.  Rarely is it possible to construct two hands with over 30 HCP split somewhat evenly between them that have such miserable transportation.  If you are going to enjoy your top minor suit tricks separately, the only entry to the South hand is in hearts (unless the defense creates the ♠J as an entry by starting with ♠K then ♠Q);  And the only entry to the North hand is the ♠A and that may be gone early.  Declarer starts with 10 top tricks (1+3+3+3 – ♠A plus 3 AKQs) with possibilities in every suit for more tricks, but that is a bit of an illusion due to the transportation problem that I mentioned.  If the ♥J comes down in 3 rounds (it does), you have your 2 extra needed tricks (if you can get to them).  If the ♣J comes down in 3 rounds (it does), you have 1 extra trick.  If the diamond ♦J10 fall in 3 rounds (they do), you have 1 extra trick.  And if the opponents start with ♠K and then ♠Q of spades, you have 1 extra trick with the ♠J.  You want to be able to try out all suits to gain whatever tricks may be available – they were all there!  The extremely favorable card layout (for declarer) made it such that 12 tricks was never a problem. 

So, the following discussion is taking a look at ‘what might have been’ to show how really dreadful the transportation was.  Consider declarer’s problem If the opponents start by knocking out the ♠A (without establishing your ♠J – picture a spade lead where East holds one of the top spades and returns a spade at trick 2).  Your 10 top tricks now look more like 9 since, if you first unblock the minor suit ♣AQ and ♦AQ, there is no entry back to the North hand to enjoy the hearts.  Therefore, after winning the A, you will pick a minor to cash the AQ and then cash the ♥AK, enter dummy in the other minor, and later you must overtake the remaining minor suit queen to get minor suit tricks in the South hand.  This means you are 3 tricks short (you can only enjoy the AKQ of one minor and sacrifice the Q in the other minor)!  If the ♥J comes down in 3 rounds, that only gets you 2 extra tricks, so you are still a trick short.  You have to find 3 discards as you run hearts before you see how the minor suits behave.  Your 3 discards will be a spade and either 2 small clubs or 2 small diamonds, hoping the suit you didn’t discard will produce 4 tricks.  On this hand the lie of the minor suits was extremely favorable, so either minor you try (cash ♦AQ and ♣A then overtake the ♣Q; or ♣AQ and ♦A then overtake the ♦Q) would have allowed 12 tricks – this discussion is all under the scenario of an opening lead to East’s high spade and a spade return and the ♥J did fall, making the hearts all good. 

But if the ♥J did not fall (giving you only 4 major suit tricks), you would need 8 minor suit tricks.  I think this would only have been possible with a doubleton ♦J10 and with the ♣J no more than 3 long, cashing clubs first.  So, the favorable spade position, which left the opponents poorly placed to knock out your ♠A made a huge difference in the play of the hand.  Without that spade position, 12 tricks were going to be very challenging even if the ♥J falls (which minor are you going to try?).  In bridge, luck often favors the bold, but not always.  There are some very unlikely squeeze possibilities – unlikely since most squeezes require robust transportation and that was not featured on this hand.  I was lucky to land 12 tricks due to all cards being very favorably placed.  I ducked the ♠K opening lead and all continuations allow a route to 12 tricks.  We were +990 while our teammates were -490, win 11 IMPs.

 

 

At one table, responding to partner’s 1♥ opening bid, North offered an invitational limit raise; the other  table bid a game forcing Jacoby 2NT.   So, via different routes, both tables reached slam…but one table was in GRAND slam!  How to find 13 tricks?  There are basically 5 options: spade lead and guess right; 3-3 clubs (allowing a diamond ruff in dummy after discarding both diamonds on good clubs and discard the other diamond on the ♠A); 4-2 clubs and guess for East to hold the ♣Q and finesse; 4-2 clubs and guess for West to hold the ♣Q and take a ruffing finesse; or have 2 ruffs drop the ♠K to dispose of both of your diamonds.  So, as long as clubs are not 6-0 or 5-1, the grand slam is ‘cold’ – just work out the club position!  I don’t see any way to obtain a reliable inferential count – it is a guess with a lot of IMPs at stake.  Against the grand slam, the ‘standard’ trump was led, the ♠K didn’t fall, and clubs were not like declarer hoped.  When declarer played for the ♣Q onside, they were limited to 12 tricks.  The problem is that there is no way to combine the play to include more playing options to cover more of the possible club distributions.  What are the choices regarding how to play clubs?  Cashing the ♣A first (to allow for a singleton ♣Q  offside) and then finessing is decidedly worse than finessing the first time (because the probability of LHO holding a void or a small singleton is far more likely than holding exactly the singleton ♣Q).  That leaves 3 possible lines of play in clubs (assuming you failed to ruff out the ♠K, which should be your top priority, since then the issue of diamond discards from dummy disappears, you can discard both of your diamond losers on spades).  So, what is the best way to play clubs?

1. Plan A – Lead the ♣10 and let it ride if not covered.  If the ♣10 wins, repeat the finesse.
2. Plan B – Lead the ♣A, ♣K and ruff the third round.
3. Plan C – Lead the ♣A, ♣K and ♣J – discarding a diamond if not covered.

Plan A is 50%.  Plan B and C are both around 54% with plan B being slightly better than Plan C (but Plan C worked on the actual hand).  For those interested, there is a web site to provide percentages:  http://www.automaton.gr/tt/en/OddsTbl.htm.  Just enter the missing cards in the box at the top and then check the box if your line of play will work for that particular layout of the suit.  It automatically totals the percent of time that that line of play will succeed.  Unfortunately, at the table, you need to take your best guess, since this tool is not allowed as you play the hand!

Against the small slam, the ♠7 was led and declarer guessed wrong, playing the ♠10 from dummy.  Thinking declarer had the ♠K9, I didn’t bother playing my ♠J!?!  So, 13 easy tricks were there for declarer when clubs were 4-2 and both club losers could be ruffed and both diamond losers went away on spades.  We were -1010 while our teammates were -50, lose 14 IMPs.

Holding the North hand, what do you respond to partner’s 1♥ opening bid?  It may be the weakest ever Jacoby 2NT, as well as the strongest ever limit raise.  Well, maybe not ever, but this hand is, in my mind, a definite tweener.  I gave this bid to some other strong players and they decided they didn’t want to play below game, so they bid 2NT.  It should depend upon partnership style – how light will they open?  

 

Here, both tables had an identical auction to arrive in 4♥.  Both tables led the ♣K which was overtaken and a club returned.  At this point, with best play, declarer cannot go down – at least double dummy.  The opening lead needed to be one of the singletons!  Either the ♠J or the ♦K can defeat 4♥, but starting with 2 club tricks leaves declarer well placed no matter how the defense proceeds at trick 3.  The defense always has 2 club tricks, but they need 2 more. The ♠J lead threatens a spade ruff in addition to scoring an eventual diamond trick.  The ♦K lead establishes a diamond trick for the defense, and declarer still cannot come to 10 tricks, whether they duck the ♦K (for a later double dummy finesse of the ♦Q) or capture the ♦K with the ♦A.  Declarer can’t draw all of the trump (the defense would have 7 club tricks to cash).  So, declarer can draw some trump but then must play side suits.  If declarer plays a diamond to the ♦9 (establishing the ♦J10), West can (must) discard their spade and get a spade ruff to go with a diamond and 2 clubs.  If declarer plays spades, West can ruff.  If they play clubs, East can win, cash the ♦Q (allowing the spade discard) and then a spade ruff and a club will provide 4 tricks for the defense.  But, all of that is about how either singleton lead will defeat the contract (Benito Garozzo is famous for the advice:  “If you have a singleton, lead it!”  When will I ever learn? – Peter, Paul and Mary, 1962)

The reality is that both tables cashed two clubs.  I then led a third club (♣Q), thinking I might get a trump promotion.  Since I have all of the remaining clubs (and I thought it would be ‘obvious’ to partner that all hands were now void in clubs) it didn’t seem to matter which club I led – I thought partner would ruff and that might help my trump suit grow up.  Partner did not ruff, and at the time, we thought declarer could not reach 10 tricks if partner had only ruffed the third round of clubs.  But, declarer’s answer to a club ruff with the ♥J is to not overruff, but to discard a diamond from both hands.  Then win whatever suit is returned, cash the ♦A and ruff a diamond in dummy and then and draw all 4 rounds of trump.  East is squeezed in spades/diamonds and 10 tricks are scored.  So, partner’s failure to ruff really was not a defensive failure – declarer can prevail after that beginning for the defense.  So, partner disappointingly did not ruff my third round of clubs and declarer did.  Declarer then drew 4 rounds of trump discarding a diamond from hand, and he was down to ♠AK6 and ♦AJ10.  At that point, he simply led a diamond to the ♦A (there are only 3 diamonds outstanding).  Partner had discarded a diamond on the third round of clubs and 3 more diamonds on the run of trumps.  If partner had all of the remaining diamonds (and I showed out on the ♦A), that meant spades were 3-2 and they were all winners.  As it was, I followed with the ♦K under the ♦A, so declarer could lead the ♦J, losing to the ♦Q but establishing the ♦10 for his 10th trick.

At trick 3, a trump was led at the other table (after cashing 2 clubs like we did).  With this line of defense, declarer has a number of ways to arrive at 10 tricks (although he cannot draw all of the trump and then lose a trick to the ♦K because there are clubs to cash).  If declarer wins the trump lead and plays another trump, they will learn that West had 4 trump and (likely) 7 clubs (why else would East overtake trick 1 with the ♣A and return a club?).  Perhaps they should stop drawing trump and try running the ♦9?  Looking at it double dummy, there are many alternative lines that can produce 10 tricks.  With the line our teammates (the declarer at the other table) chose, they only found 7 tricks.  They drew trump, cashed spades hoping for a split and then finessed diamonds with West winning the ♦K and cashing the remaining tricks with good clubs.  So, we were -420 to go with -150, lose 11 IMPs.

For what it is worth, Lead Captain also chose the singletons as the two best leads, but the ♣K was not far behind.

 

 

So much for ‘same bidding at both tables!’  These last two hands of the day featured different bidding judgment in nearly every seat for every bid with many varied bidding problems/options.  I decided to go through the bidding, one bid at a time for each table.

Let’s look first at the bidding at my table.  Is the South hand an opening 15-17 NT?  At my table South opened 1♣.  Nothing wrong with that.  

I was next (West), and with a respectable diamond suit, I made a weak jump overcall of 2♦.  Perhaps I should bid 3♦?  Or 1♦?  I have pretty fair offense and defense, so I settled on the middle ground – a 3♦ bid certainly would have given North a different problem than the 2♦ bid that I chose.  No singletons is a serious negative to my hand. 

Now, it is North’s turn.  After hearing partner open 1♣ and RHO bid 2♦, they can make a negative double or start bidding their suits.  The hand has a bit less HCP than you would expect for a free bid of 2♠, but it does have the advantage of holding 6 spades as well as 5 cards in the other major with the ability to try hearts next time if partner retreats to 3♣.  The 2♠ bid was mildly aggressive, but reasonable: 6-5 come alive.  Partner did open the bidding, so how bad can it be.

Over to East having heard partner’s weak jump overcall, they raised to 3♦.  

With their second bid, South who had opened 1♣ offered a 3♠ raise.  With maximum high cards (in the context of a potential minimum opening bid) and a doubleton, they might have jumped to game, but if they must ruff hearts, the value of their spade honors might decrease.  

Now West, gets another chance to bid after their RHO has bid 3♠.  Here they heard their partner raise their suit.  But, there is no sense in forcing them to bid game, so pass certainly seems reasonable.

North, who aggressively bid a new suit at the 2 level, heard partner raise spades.  North is minimum in high card and if partner has no minor suit ace, discarding on secondary minor winners (after the opponents take their aces) will be unlikely to produce incremental tricks, since your heart suit is so strong – those heart discards will likely be cards that would be winning tricks anyway!  Still, partner raised spades, so North went on to the spade game.

East has some respectable defense vs. 4♠ with little idea about partner’s offense/defense holding (but, the 2♦ weak jump overcall does suggest more offense than defense).  East passed.

After North has raised to game, South has nothing further to say.

But, West (my seat) now had a significant decision – save (with 5♦) or defend (with pass).  Since we only have 3 tricks on defense and 9 on offense (losing 2+1+1+0), I should have taken the save.  I was worried about the potential that the opponents might be going down (aka phantom “save”), and I was also worried, if partner had the wrong cards, that we could pay out -800, more than the value of their vulnerable game.  Five level decisions are always tough and I sure got this one wrong.  Do you take the save?

Now let’s look at the bidding at the other table which was quite different.  Is the South hand an opening 15-17 NT (14 HCP plus a point for the 5th club)?  I think so and South did open 1NT.

Over 1NT, West was unable to immediately show diamonds, so they made a Meckwell double (showing one minor, or both majors or spades…to be revealed later).

Now, it is North’s turn.  Responding to 1NT (and ‘knowing’ RHO has a single minor – they could hardly hold both majors), they were able to use a convention (3♦) where they can show both majors, 5 or more in each, invitational or better.  That pretty well describes this hand.

Over to East where presumably the Meckwell bid consisted of one minor since his RHO had just shown at least 10 cards in the majors.  Knowing that, they might try 4♣ or even 5♣ as “pass or correct, I have support for whatever minor you hold” but they simply passed.

With their second bid, South was bidding in response to partner’s 3♦ which was invitational or better with long majors.  Since their HCP count was minimum (in the context of the 1NT opening), they did not accept the invite.  Their ♣K is of doubtful value, but the other high card points are golden – carrying full weight and then some.  In any case, they obviously chose spades, but declined the invite with a 3♠ call.

Now West gets another chance to bid after their RHO has rebid 3♠.  There is no sense in forcing them to bid game, so pass certainly seems reasonable.

North, with 6 spades, heard partner choose spades over hearts (after opening 1NT), but partner did not accept the invite.  Over the years, I have found that 6 card suits with support from partner have an incredible consistency of producing 10 tricks (however, this is not the case in the context of a weak 2 opener followed by a blocking bid by partner raising my suit to 3), so I don’t spend much time on analysis, I just bid the game.  Still, you are minimum in high card and you invited, partner did not accept.  So North passed.

East has no good reason to balance over 3♠ so they pass and defend the partscore.  The opponents didn’t reach game, don’t force them there.   

There was nothing in the play in the spade contract.  Two hearts and a club must be lost, but there is the ♦A plus 3 hearts and 6 spades for 10 tricks.  Our teammates were +170 to go with -620, lose 10 IMPs.

Once more, I think the bidding decisions were interesting, so I will look at them one seat at a time from each table.

West (my seat again) was the dealer.  I don’t relish opening 1NT with a singleton ♠K, but I really didn’t want to open 1♦ and then bid 2NT over partner’s possible 1♠ response.  I have “18 points” with 17 HCP and 1 for the 5th diamond, but with the flawed spade suit, I decided to open 1NT.

North made a Meckwell double showing 1 minor, both majors or strong spades.  East had nothing to say.

South looked at 6-5 and came alive with 2♠.  The ‘routine’ bid after the Meckwell double is 2♣ and then let partner describe which of the hands they hold.  Since North would pass if their suit was clubs, South didn’t like the prospect of playing 2♣ so they showed their suit.  If partner has both majors or strong spades, they should know what to do.  And if partner has one minor, they can still look at their hand and figure out the best course of action.  West has no bid after hearing the Meckwell violating bid of 2♠.

North, with 2 club tricks, strong spades in context, and a diamond void, bounced to the spade game which was passed out.

Meanwhile, at the other table, West thought they were too strong to open 1NT, so they started with 1♦.

That gave North the opportunity to bid their club suit naturally with 2♣.  East passed.

South had modest high card points and no interest in clubs, so they tried their spade suit with 2♠.

West had nothing to say and North elected to raise to 3♠ showing useful support.  East passed.

South decided that the overall strength of the hand was too weak to advance to game.  As I said on the prior problem, when I have a 6 card major and hear a raise, I will usually go to game and let the defense worry about how to defeat it.

Again, there is no interesting play or defense – cross ruff your way to 10 tricks.  With all other leads unappealing, I started with a club.  Declarer pitched their heart loser on the top clubs and then ruffed 4 hearts and 3 diamonds.  Nine tricks in and they still had the ♠A10 and 2 losing diamonds.  When partner ruffed my diamond trick (necessary to have any chance to hold them to 10 tricks) they led trumps.  Declarer played the ♠A and ended up with 11 tricks.  Our teammates scored 10 tricks on the opening lead of the ♦A, so they were +170 with our -650, lose 10 IMPs.